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HOP is a precision forecasting market on Robinhood Chain. You forecast an actual number, not a yes or no, and you earn based on how close you get.

USDGRobinhood ChainHow a pool works

  1. Pick a pool — a symbol and a close time, like ETH at 14:00 UTC or NVDA at 00:00 UTC.
  2. Enter the price you think it will be at close, and stake USDG on it.
  3. You can edit until the pool closes; each edit lowers your conviction multiplier and resets your early-entry bonus.
  4. At close, the pool settles and pays out automatically.

Your forecast is private

Other participants cannot see your number, or how many times you have changed it, until the pool settles. Only the stake and the participant count are public while a pool is live. This removes the herding you get on markets where everyone can see the crowd — nobody can copy you, and you cannot copy anyone.

How payouts are calculated

Three things decide your share of the pot:

  • Accuracy. How close your number was to the settled price. Being 1% off scores about half of a perfect hit. The curve is smooth, so there is no cliff you fall off — just less as you drift.
  • Timing. Committing at the open is worth up to 1.5× a forecast committed at the close. Early conviction is worth more because it carries more risk — and it is measured from your last change, not your first, so an edit gives that head start back.
  • Conviction. Every edit shaves 5% off your multiplier, floored at 0.75×. Changing your mind costs something, but it never wipes you out.

Your score is those three multiplied together, then weighted by your stake. The pot is split by each participant's share of the total score, so payouts always sum to the pot exactly. HOP takes a 3% fee off the top.

Where the settlement price comes from

Prices come from DexScreener, reading the deepest-liquidity Robinhood Chain pool for each asset. Tokenized stocks are matched to Robinhood's own token registry, so a copycat token can never price a market. At settlement we take five samples across the close and use the median, so a single wick or a thin-pool blip cannot decide who gets paid. If the feed cannot be read for six hours, the pool is voided and every stake is returned.

Deposits and withdrawals

Deposits are ordinary USDG transfers on Robinhood Chain that you approve in your own wallet. The dashboard builds the transfer, your wallet shows you the amount and the destination, and nothing is credited until the transaction is confirmed on chain. You pay the network fee of the deposit in ETH, a few cents. The minimum deposit is 0.50 USDG.

Fund with USDG, USDe, ETH, WETH or cbBTC — swaps are routed by Delora and settle in USDG.

Withdrawals go back to the wallet you signed in with, minimum 0.50 USDG, and usually land within seconds. Each withdrawal carries a flat 0.03 USDG network fee, which covers the gas of the transfer that pays you.

HOP holds deposited funds — see the terms for what that means for you.

Pools we run

  • Crypto — ETH, BTC. Hourly.
  • Memes — PONS, AI, CASHCAT, STONKBROKER, NOVAAI, MOO. Hourly.
  • Stocks — AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, SPY, META, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, QQQ, MSTR. Daily.
  • Commodities — GLD, SLV, USO. Daily.
  • RWA — SGOV, SPCX. Daily.

Stocks, commodities and RWA run daily rather than hourly because the markets behind them are closed for most of the day.

Fees

  • 3% of each pool, taken off the pot before payouts.
  • No fee to place or edit a forecast.
  • Deposits: the Robinhood Chain network fee, paid in ETH by your wallet.
  • Withdrawals: a flat 0.03 USDG network fee.

Getting started

Connect any EVM wallet on Robinhood Chain, deposit USDG, and open the pools.